Shafter - Wasco Football Game Tonight

The Shafter - Wasco football game is tonight in Wasco. The Bivouac has a bunch of stuff on the game here.

Freudian Headlines

"Parra-Gilmore race pivotal"

That's the lead headline on the Bakersfield Californian website right now. Actually, Gilmore is running against Fran Florez. Perhaps the Californian editors were unconsciously thinking that Gilmore should have been ranked higher in Maxim Magazine's list of "hottest politicians," which pegged Nicole Parra fourth.

Speaking of politics, the mix-ups over at the Californian, they aren't limited to the staff today. Currently more readers select George W. Bush as their favorite president than select Jefferson or Washington.

Fran Florez Profile

Interesting profile of our own Fran Florez in the Californian today. Fran has been active in the community for a long time, seemingly without making enemies. John Guinn's comments about her being someone who builds consensus strikes me as genuine and are born out under the reputational microscope of small town life. Good luck, Fran!

Football Preview is Out

The Californian published its football preview for the SSL. Coach Steve Denman of Tehachapi seems to have mastered preseason favorite coach-speak, managing to compliment everyone a little differently, but equally.

“It’s going to be tight,” he said. “Wasco is improving, they’re real physical and gave us everything we could handle last year. Taft is loaded. ... BCHS is probably the most talented team as far as skill positions. Arvin could surprise you, they won the (JV) league as sophomores. And Shafter, they say they don’t have anybody over there, but you know, they’re playing a little possum, I think.”

Zach Ewing doesn't think Shafter is "playing a little possum," though. He picked Shafter to go winless on the season.

Uh... Thanks, I guess.

I believe this site has been linked for the first time.  Actually it's a "probationary link" from a blog about the Shafter High boys basketball team.  The author, writing under the name of Shafter's namesake, the General William Rufus Shafter, says that Shafter News is "mostly dedicated to commentary on Shafter-related Bakersfield Californian articles.  Given the dearth of Shafter news online, I'll take it."   

This must have been written before I got into writing essays on education statistics, development, and sales taxes, which are far too boring to be the subject of a Californian article.   Anyway, it's good to know that someone is reading.

Sales Taxes

What could be more interesting? Actually it is pretty interesting. The City of Shafter has been pursuing businesses with the idea of growing their sales tax revenue for a number of years. Not unusual, I am sure. What is unusual is how successful they have been, especially last year. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 2007, the City more than doubled it's sales tax revenue from $3.1 million to $6.4 million. This was without raising the rate. Before that, sales tax revenue had been growing, but much more modestly.  It was at $1.8 million in 2004, $2.1 in 2005, and $3.1 in 2006.  To put this further in perspective, the City's total budget last year was less than $10 million, so nearly 70% of expenditures were covered by sales taxes. By comparison, Bakersfield takes in sales tax revenue that is consistently around 45% of expenditures, covering the rest through property taxes, gas and water fees, etc. This growth is expected to pause this year with sales taxes budgeted at just over $5 million due to slowing economic conditions. The downturn is accentuated by the fact that quite a few Shafter businesses are tied directly to construction.  Still, Shafter is doing pretty well. 

The big push in 2007 seems to have been driven by several number of new openings and expansions. Performance Food Group built and occupied a building near the airport, Scotts Fertilizer opened a new facility employing 30 people, both Bethlehem and Precast Concrete expanded their operations. Formica opened a warehouse operation near 7th Standard employing 20 people. The Target distribution center, which opened in 2002, continued to grow, reaching 800 employees in 2007.  (Note- I don't think that the Target distribution center actually generates sales taxes, though I could be mistaken.)

Taxable sales from these companies were all to other businesses and almost all of them to customers outside of Shafter. The demographics right now simply don't support much of a consumer driven economy.  Moreover, even Shafter's middle class, small as it is, mostly shops for groceries, home improvement supplies, and just about everything else in Bakersfield.  This makes the recent achievements all the more impressive and provides the backdrop to the growth of Bakersfield toward the edge of Shafter and the widening of 7th Standard, which could prove a windfall (the good kind, not like finding a hand) for Shafter.  Retail follows traffic and disposable income.  If current trends continue, 7th Standard will have both in spades.  Retail development on the northern side of 7th Standard would allow the City of Shafter to collect retail sales taxes with minimal infrastructure construction and maintenance.  Not only would the retail taxes from the Shafter middle class stay in the city, but the shopping of Northern Bakersfieldians would also be contributing to the coffers of Shafter.   

What's wild is that the City is already flush.  At the last reporting, Shafter had $25.9 million in unreserved cash.  That's right.  The City of Shafter could operate as it does now for nearly three years with no revenue.  Bakersfield, whose budget is 15 times as large had an unreserved balance of $35.8 million.  

At the Doorstep

I had been working on this post for a while, but the resolution of the water dispute between Shafter and Bakersfield makes it particularly relevant.  

Much has been made of the excesses of the housing market and nothing illustrates overreach like a development abandoned unfinished. With a new article out that Kern County is once again among the leaders in foreclosures, it might seem that the expanding footprint of Bakersfield has been entirely speculator-fueled. The pace of growth in recent years was certainly not sustainable. However, the expansion of Bakersfield toward Shafter is a longer term trend. Compare these two maps of Shafter (Green blip in the upper left hand corner) and Northwest Bakersfield.  Apologies for the low image quality.  The first is from 1990. The green signifies areas with population density greater than 1000 persons per square mile, which any suburb or town easily hits. The tan is basically undeveloped.  The key line here is 7th Standard (running East-West not quite halfway down).  After some disputes, that has become the dividing line between Shafter and Bakersfield.  

In this first map, from 1990, the vast majority of Bakersfield lay to the south of the Kern River.  The northwest had little pockets of development, especially along the 99 and Rosedale Highway (East-West about 3 quarters of the way down)

The bottom map is from 2000.  Look at the growth to the west and the north.  I didn't include all of Bakersfield in this map because the detail would have become even more obscure than it already is, however, the other borders of Bakersfield hardly move.  This is sort of obvious to anyone who has been paying attention, but Bakersfield is taking up land and primarily in the direction of Shafter.  In the time since 2000, the trend has continued and even accelerated with the housing boom.  Bakersfield's growth has pushed up nearly to 7th Standard, which actually isn't all that new.  What is new is that it now is approaching that line with a much wider front - about 5 miles across at it's closest point, from the 99 to Allen Road - than the sliver that approached that line in the past. 

Development is still about a mile away from 7th Standard. Yet, all signs point toward 7th Standard itself becoming a major road and a stimulus to new commercial development in the next decade.  Not only has there been significant residential growth all along the south of the road (with favorable demographics, I might add), but also some new commercial development near the 99.   More importantly, work is under way on an overpass to eliminate the rail crossing near the 99 and I understand that it will be widened to four lanes soon.   Traffic on 7th Standard between Santa Fe and 99 was at 8,700 vehicles per day in 2007, which was up nearly 25% over 2005 counts.  With four lanes, traffic will continue to increase, making it a a draw for commercial development in the vicious/virtuous cycle of traffic-commercial development-more traffic.  

This could have a large impact on Shafter in the future.  For one thing, it seems to play directly into the City of Shafter's tax farming strategy of recent years.  More on that in another post. The other point is that it suggests the possibility of two geographically distinct Shafters. One of the main drivers of growth in the Northwest has been the schools.  Norris in particular has been among the best in Bakersfield for years.  You can see from this map (you have to look hard) that the boundary of Richland School District is actually about half a mile north of Seventh Standard.   A half mile deep, the length of Seventh Standard between 99 and Santa Fe is in Shafter, but in the Norris and Rosedale school districts.  This, not the city line is more likely to be the next stopping point of Bakersfield's northward push and it seems entirely plausible that growth will shift directions there, leaving a little (and relatively wealthy) strip of Shafter that is indistinguishable from Bakersfield, except in address and that is entirely distinct from Shafter as we now know it.