Much has been made of the excesses of the housing market and nothing illustrates overreach like a development abandoned unfinished. With a new article out that Kern County is once again among the leaders in foreclosures, it might seem that the expanding footprint of Bakersfield has been entirely speculator-fueled. The pace of growth in recent years was certainly not sustainable. However, the expansion of Bakersfield toward Shafter is a longer term trend. Compare these two maps of Shafter (Green blip in the upper left hand corner) and Northwest Bakersfield. Apologies for the low image quality. The first is from 1990. The green signifies areas with population density greater than 1000 persons per square mile, which any suburb or town easily hits. The tan is basically undeveloped. The key line here is 7th Standard (running East-West not quite halfway down). After some disputes, that has become the dividing line between Shafter and Bakersfield.
In this first map, from 1990, the vast majority of Bakersfield lay to the south of the Kern River. The northwest had little pockets of development, especially along the 99 and Rosedale Highway (East-West about 3 quarters of the way down)
The bottom map is from 2000. Look at the growth to the west and the north. I didn't include all of Bakersfield in this map because the detail would have become even more obscure than it already is, however, the other borders of Bakersfield hardly move. This is sort of obvious to anyone who has been paying attention, but Bakersfield is taking up land and primarily in the direction of Shafter. In the time since 2000, the trend has continued and even accelerated with the housing boom. Bakersfield's growth has pushed up nearly to 7th Standard, which actually isn't all that new. What is new is that it now is approaching that line with a much wider front - about 5 miles across at it's closest point, from the 99 to Allen Road - than the sliver that approached that line in the past.
Development is still about a mile away from 7th Standard. Yet, all signs point toward 7th Standard itself becoming a major road and a stimulus to new commercial development in the next decade. Not only has there been significant residential growth all along the south of the road (with favorable demographics, I might add), but also some new commercial development near the 99. More importantly, work is under way on an overpass to eliminate the rail crossing near the 99 and I understand that it will be widened to four lanes soon. Traffic on 7th Standard between Santa Fe and 99 was at 8,700 vehicles per day in 2007, which was up nearly 25% over 2005 counts. With four lanes, traffic will continue to increase, making it a a draw for commercial development in the vicious/virtuous cycle of traffic-commercial development-more traffic.
This could have a large impact on Shafter in the future. For one thing, it seems to play directly into the City of Shafter's tax farming strategy of recent years. More on that in another post. The other point is that it suggests the possibility of two geographically distinct Shafters. One of the main drivers of growth in the Northwest has been the schools. Norris in particular has been among the best in Bakersfield for years. You can see from this map (you have to look hard) that the boundary of Richland School District is actually about half a mile north of Seventh Standard. A half mile deep, the length of Seventh Standard between 99 and Santa Fe is in Shafter, but in the Norris and Rosedale school districts. This, not the city line is more likely to be the next stopping point of Bakersfield's northward push and it seems entirely plausible that growth will shift directions there, leaving a little (and relatively wealthy) strip of Shafter that is indistinguishable from Bakersfield, except in address and that is entirely distinct from Shafter as we now know it.
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